Australian wool production is forecasted to remain at 80 year lows this year, there are signs of recovery as higher sheep prices and better rainfall are positive signs for Merino ewe production. Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee  has revised its forecast for Australian shorn wool production in 2009/-0 to 330 mkg greasy, compared with forecast of 335 mkg greasy. The forecast for 2009-10 is around 30 mkg greasy lower than the 2008-09 seasons.

The Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson, said the main driver for the lower wool production in 2009-10 is the lower number of sheep in Australia. The Australian sheep flock is being affected by the production of sheep for meat, with more lambs being produced and slaughtered and strong demand for live export, particularly from Western Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics recently released its final estimate of the number of sheep in Australia as at 1st July 2008. At 76.9 million head, this is 2.3 million head less than ABS’ preliminary estimate.

Based on this lower estimate, together with the latest statistics on sheep and lamb slaughtering and live sheep exports from the ABS, the Committee estimates that opening sheep numbers for the 2009-10 seasons will be around 70 million head, a fall of around 8%.

The Committee also estimates that shorn wool production in 2008/09 was at 359 mkg greasy, a fall of 10% compared with the 2007-08 season. This is higher than the March forecast as AWTA wool tests in April-June were higher than previously anticipated.

The national Committee drew on advice from the six state committees, each of which includes brokers, growers, private treaty merchants, representatives from state departments of agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.

Wool production is forecast to fall in every state in 2009-10, with the smallest percentage declines compared with 2008-09 expected in Tasmania and South Australia, and the largest declines expected in the largest wool producing states of Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria.