Country may face 2 million bales shortfall in 2008-09

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) has predicted a shortfall of around 2 million cotton bales during crop season 2008-09 and country would be able to achieve 13 million bales this season, said Minister for MINFAL, Nazar Muhammad Gondal.

However, growers and traders said the revised target of the Minfal is not achievable as the government's estimates for 2006-07 and 2007-08 crop seasons are not realistic estimates. Mohd. Akram Chaudhry Chairman of PCGA said low yield was expected during crop season 2008-09 due to the paucity of water, supply of poor quality seeds, inadequate supply of quality inputs and uncertified sowing of Bacillus Thuringiensis (BT) variety of cotton in the country.

He said country achieved 11.6 million bales in the last season against a revised target of 14.11 million cotton bales, while government has set a target of 14.11 million bales during 2008-09. Most of the BT cotton varieties were marketed with wrong notation of resistance to all pests. In some instances Bt cottonseed was mixed with non-BT cottonseed, having negative effects on the yield. Survey by National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC) revealed that almost 80% of cotton growing area in Sindh has come under unapproved BT cotton (Australian BT) with high incidence (60% to 100%) of Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV) infection.

Due to reduced output of raw cotton in Pakistan during 2008-09, imports of cotton are expected to increase by 20%.  Pakistan would have to import around 3.6 million bales in this crop season to meet the textile sector's requirements.

Textile spinning sector would face problems, as the dollar-rupee parity would increase the cost of cotton imports. A senior member of Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) and Ex-Chairman PCGA cotton belt region, Shaikh Saeed Ahmed said inadequate policies and irrigation water scarcity forced the government to revise the cotton crop target (2008-09).