World cotton demand likely to go up

World cotton production in 2007-08 is estimated 2.6% lower than in 2006-07, at 119 million bales. Consumption is estimated 1% higher than 2006-07, at 124 million bales. Unaccounted cotton in 2007-08 is also estimated higher than in 2006-07. Combining production and unaccounted cotton gives a total estimated supply of new cotton of 122 million bales, down 1.5% from the year before.

Ending stocks are expected to fall about 2 million bales in 2007-08, to 59 million bales, or to 48% of consumption. This is down from 50% in 2006-07, and below the 53% average of the previous 10 years. If China’s stocks are excluded from this calculation, ending stocks are forecast at 34% of consumption, unchanged from 2006-07, and slightly higher than the 33% average of the previous 10 years.